Gas Wars Whitepaper

Abstract

Gas Wars is a networked generative artwork that explores the concept of Survivorship Bias through 500 combat simulations on the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Inspired by statistician Abraham Wald's World War II analysis of aircraft damage patterns, the project creates an economic and algorithmic system where destruction contains more information than survival. Each simulation represents the cost per bullet fired at an aircraft, with prices ranging linearly from $0 to $499. The work examines how economic incentives, network congestion, and collector behavior create their own forms of survivorship bias, while generating aircraft that may emerge damaged, destroyed, or absent entirely based on the number of bullets they face.

Introduction
Historical Foundation: Abraham Wald & Survivorship Bias
Conceptual Framework
Technical Architecture
Economic Mechanics
Algorithmic Generation
Network Dynamics & Gas Wars
Collector Psychology & Market Behavior
Philosophical Implications
Technical Specifications
Critical Reception & Cultural Significance
Conclusion

Introduction

Gas Wars represents a sophisticated synthesis of historical analysis, economic theory, generative art, and blockchain technology. By translating Abraham Wald's World War II survivorship bias research into a contemporary digital art context, the project creates a system where economic incentives directly influence both artistic outcomes and collector behavior.

The work operates on multiple conceptual levels: as generative art that creates unique aircraft simulations, as economic experiment that tests collector psychology, as technical demonstration of blockchain network dynamics, and as philosophical inquiry into the nature of information, survival, and value attribution in digital systems.

Key Characteristics

Artist: Jack Butcher
Collaborators: Jalil Wahdatehagh, Art Blocks
Launch: September 2025
Supply: 500 unique combat simulations
Network: Ethereum Virtual Machine
Pricing: Linear from $0 to $499 (cost per bullet)
Distribution: Simulation Zero via auction, remaining 499 via Art Blocks (500 seconds only)
Platform: Art Blocks Curated

Historical Foundation: Abraham Wald & Survivorship Bias

The Original Analysis

During World War II, statistician Abraham Wald was tasked with analyzing damage patterns on aircraft returning from combat missions. Military officials initially wanted to add armor to the areas showing the most bullet holes, reasoning that these were the most frequently hit locations.

Wald's crucial insight inverted this logic: the bullet holes in returning aircraft showed where planes could survive damage, not where they needed protection. The areas without bullet holes were actually the most critical—aircraft hit in these locations never made it back to be analyzed.

The missing planes told the real story.

Survivorship Bias Defined

Survivorship bias occurs when we focus on successful outcomes while overlooking failures, leading to false conclusions about what causes success. In Wald's case:

Visible Data: Damaged but surviving aircraft
Invisible Data: Aircraft that were shot down
False Conclusion: Armor the areas with visible damage
Correct Conclusion: Armor the areas without visible damage

This cognitive bias affects numerous fields: business analysis, medical research, historical records, and investment strategies all suffer from overemphasizing survivors while ignoring failures.

Contemporary Relevance

Gas Wars translates this historical insight into contemporary digital contexts:

Blockchain Networks: Successful transactions are visible; failed transactions often go unrecorded
NFT Markets: Successful projects receive attention; failed projects disappear from view
Generative Art: Collected pieces are preserved; uncollected pieces may be forgotten
Economic Systems: Profitable strategies are studied; unprofitable ones are ignored

Conceptual Framework

Destruction as Information

The project's central thesis—"Destruction contains more information than survival"—inverts conventional value systems. In Gas Wars:

Low-Price Simulations (Early Numbers):

Face fewer bullets
Higher survival probability
Less information about vulnerability patterns
Greater collector appeal (perceived safety)

High-Price Simulations (Late Numbers):

Face hundreds of bullets
Lower survival probability
Rich data about destruction patterns
Lower collector appeal (perceived risk)

This creates a paradox: the most expensive and informative pieces are least likely to survive, while the cheapest and least informative pieces have the best survival odds.

Economic Survivorship Bias

Gas Wars creates its own survivorship bias through economic mechanics:

Collector Behavior: Rational actors may prefer low-priced, high-survival simulations
Market Dynamics: High-information, low-survival pieces may remain uncollected
Network Effects: Gas wars (network congestion) may prevent access to desired pieces
Information Asymmetry: Expensive pieces contain more data but appeal to fewer collectors

The Missing Data Problem

Just as Wald's analysis required considering absent aircraft, Gas Wars forces consideration of:

Uncollected Simulations: What information do they contain?
Destroyed Aircraft: What vulnerability patterns do they reveal?
Failed Transactions: How does network congestion affect outcomes?
Collector Avoidance: Why do high-information pieces remain unclaimed?

Technical Architecture

Art Blocks Integration

Platform: Art Blocks Curated Distribution Window: 500 seconds only (8 minutes 20 seconds) Collection Interface: artblocks.io Minting Process: Sequential from Simulation #1 to #499

The extremely limited time window creates urgency and potential network congestion, directly implementing the "gas wars" concept that defined early Art Blocks releases.

Simulation Zero Auction

Format: No reserve auction Duration: 24 hours Platform: gaswars.vv.xyz Significance: Establishes floor price and market interest

Simulation Zero serves multiple functions:

Price discovery mechanism
Community engagement tool
Marketing catalyst
Economic baseline establishment

Blockchain Architecture

Network: Ethereum Virtual Machine Standard: ERC-721 (Non-Fungible Token) Supply Model: Fixed 500 pieces Pricing: Linear progression ($0-$499) Metadata: On-chain simulation parameters Generation: Real-time algorithmic creation

Economic Mechanics

Linear Pricing Model

The pricing structure creates direct correlation between cost and simulation intensity:

Simulation	Price	Bullets	Survival Odds	Information Value
#0	$0	0	100%	Minimal
#100	$100	100	High	Moderate
#250	$250	250	Medium	High
#499	$499	499	Low	Maximum

Economic Incentives

For Low-Price Collectors:

Lower financial risk
Higher survival probability
Reduced information content
Greater market appeal

For High-Price Collectors:

Higher financial risk
Lower survival probability
Maximum information content
Potential market inefficiency opportunity

Network Congestion Economics

The 500-second distribution window may trigger "gas wars"—periods of network congestion where:

Transaction fees spike dramatically
Collectors compete for block inclusion
Some transactions fail due to insufficient gas
Network dynamics influence artistic outcomes

This meta-layer adds another dimension of survivorship bias: only transactions that survive network congestion successfully mint tokens.

Algorithmic Generation

Combat Simulation Algorithm

Each simulation generates unique aircraft through algorithmic processes:

Bullet Generation: Number of bullets determined by simulation number
Impact Calculation: Algorithmic determination of hit locations
Damage Assessment: Evaluation of aircraft survivability
Visual Rendering: Generation of damaged, destroyed, or absent aircraft
Metadata Creation: Recording of simulation parameters and outcomes

Outcome Categories

Damaged Aircraft: Survive with visible bullet holes (like Wald's returning planes) Destroyed Aircraft: Catastrophic damage preventing survival Absent Aircraft: Complete destruction leaving no visual trace

Visual Modes

Light Mode: Standard presentation showing aircraft and damage patterns Dark Mode: Alternative visualization emphasizing different aspects of destruction

The dual-mode presentation allows collectors to examine their simulations from multiple perspectives, potentially revealing different information about damage patterns.

Information Density

Higher-numbered simulations provide richer datasets:

More bullet impact points
Complex damage patterns
Detailed vulnerability analysis
Comprehensive destruction data

This information density makes expensive simulations valuable for analysis even when aircraft don't survive.

Network Dynamics & Gas Wars

Historical Context

Early Art Blocks Curated releases frequently triggered "gas wars"—periods of extreme network congestion where:

Collectors competed for limited mint opportunities
Gas prices spiked to hundreds of dollars per transaction
Network became unusable for normal operations
Only highest-paying transactions succeeded

Gas Wars as Artistic Medium

Gas Wars deliberately invokes this phenomenon as part of its conceptual framework:

Technical Layer: Network congestion affects who can successfully mint Economic Layer: Gas prices become additional cost beyond artwork price Social Layer: Community coordination and competition dynamics Artistic Layer: Network behavior becomes part of the artwork's meaning

Survivorship Through Network Dynamics

The 500-second window creates multiple layers of survivorship bias:

Speed Bias: Fast actors have advantages over slow ones
Economic Bias: Wealthy collectors can pay higher gas fees
Technical Bias: Sophisticated users with better tools succeed more often
Network Bias: Transactions during low-congestion moments have better odds

Collector Psychology & Market Behavior

Risk Assessment Patterns

Gas Wars tests how collectors evaluate risk across multiple dimensions:

Financial Risk: Higher simulation numbers cost more Survival Risk: Higher numbers have lower survival odds Information Risk: Higher numbers provide more data but less appealing outcomes Network Risk: Gas wars may prevent successful minting

Behavioral Predictions

Risk-Averse Collectors: May cluster around low-numbered simulations Information Seekers: May target high-numbered simulations despite poor survival odds Arbitrage Hunters: May identify mispriced high-information pieces Network Gamers: May use sophisticated tools to navigate gas wars

Market Inefficiencies

The project may create several market inefficiencies:

Information Discount: High-information pieces trading below intrinsic value
Survival Premium: Low-risk pieces trading above fair value
Network Premium: Successfully minted pieces gaining value from scarcity
Completion Premium: Full collection assembly becoming increasingly difficult

Philosophical Implications

Information Theory and Value

Gas Wars challenges conventional relationships between information and value:

Traditional Model: More information = Higher value Gas Wars Model: More information = Lower survival odds = Potential lower demand

This inversion forces reconsideration of how we value information, particularly when that information describes failure or destruction.

The Epistemology of Absence

The project explores what we can learn from what's missing:

Absent Aircraft: What do completely destroyed simulations tell us?
Uncollected Pieces: What does collector avoidance reveal?
Failed Transactions: How does network failure inform our understanding?
Invisible Data: What patterns exist in the spaces between visible outcomes?

Survivorship Bias in Digital Systems

Gas Wars demonstrates how survivorship bias operates in contemporary digital contexts:

Blockchain Records: Only successful transactions are permanently recorded NFT Markets: Only collected pieces receive ongoing attention Network Analysis: Failed transactions often disappear from standard metrics Cultural Memory: Unsuccessful projects fade from collective awareness

The Value of Destruction

By positioning destruction as information-rich, Gas Wars questions fundamental assumptions about value creation:

Can failure be more valuable than success?
Does destruction contain unique insights unavailable through survival?
How do we preserve and value information about what doesn't work?
What can we learn from systematic analysis of failure patterns?

Technical Specifications

Smart Contract Architecture

Standard: ERC-721 Non-Fungible Token
Network: Ethereum Mainnet
Supply: 500 unique simulations
Pricing: Linear from $0 to $499
Generation: On-chain algorithmic creation
Metadata: Comprehensive simulation parameters

Simulation Parameters

Each token contains metadata describing:

Simulation Number: 0-499
Bullet Count: Matches simulation number
Aircraft State: Damaged/Destroyed/Absent
Impact Locations: Coordinates of bullet hits
Survival Assessment: Algorithmic determination
Information Density: Quantified data richness

Visual Generation

Format: Scalable vector graphics (SVG)
Modes: Light and Dark visualization options
Resolution: High-definition rendering suitable for display
Animation: Potential dynamic elements showing impact sequences
Interactivity: Possible user exploration of damage patterns

Distribution Technology

Simulation Zero:

Custom auction interface at gaswars.vv.xyz
24-hour no-reserve auction format
Real-time bidding and price discovery

Simulations 1-499:

Art Blocks Curated platform integration
500-second exclusive minting window
Sequential release mechanism
Automated pricing progression

Critical Reception & Cultural Significance

Bridging Historical Analysis and Contemporary Art

Gas Wars demonstrates how historical insights can inform contemporary digital art practice. By translating Wald's statistical analysis into generative art, the project creates new ways of understanding both historical events and current technological systems.

Contribution to Generative Art Discourse

The project advances several important discussions in digital art:

Economic Integration: How pricing mechanisms can become integral to artistic meaning Network Dynamics: How blockchain infrastructure affects artistic outcomes Information Theory: How data density relates to aesthetic and economic value Behavioral Economics: How collector psychology influences market dynamics

Art Blocks Ecosystem Impact

As an Art Blocks Curated release, Gas Wars contributes to the platform's exploration of:

Time-Limited Releases: Extreme scarcity through brief availability windows
Economic Experimentation: Novel pricing and distribution mechanisms
Network Meta-Commentary: Art that comments on its own distribution infrastructure
Historical Reference: Connecting generative art to broader cultural and historical contexts

Conclusion

Gas Wars represents a sophisticated synthesis of historical analysis, economic theory, generative art, and blockchain technology. By translating Abraham Wald's World War II survivorship bias research into a contemporary digital art context, the project creates a multi-layered exploration of information, value, and survival in digital systems.

The work's significance extends beyond its immediate aesthetic and economic impact. It demonstrates how generative art can engage seriously with historical precedent, statistical analysis, and behavioral economics while creating genuinely novel artistic experiences. The project's integration of network dynamics, collector psychology, and algorithmic generation creates a complex system where multiple forms of survivorship bias operate simultaneously.

Most importantly, Gas Wars suggests that the most valuable information may often be found in what's missing, destroyed, or overlooked. By creating economic incentives that potentially leave the most information-rich pieces uncollected, the project forces consideration of how we value knowledge, particularly knowledge about failure and destruction.

The work contributes to an emerging paradigm where generative art functions not merely as aesthetic creation but as experimental system for testing economic, psychological, and social theories. This approach positions digital art as a legitimate medium for serious intellectual inquiry while maintaining the visual and conceptual sophistication expected of contemporary art practice.

The final insight: In systems where survival and success receive disproportionate attention, the greatest opportunities for learning—and potentially for value creation—may lie in systematic analysis of what fails, what's destroyed, and what never makes it back to tell its story.

Access and Collection

Simulation Zero: gaswars.vv.xyz (24-hour auction)
Simulations 1-499: Art Blocks Curated (500 seconds only)
Collection Interface: artblocks.io
Artist Portfolio: jack.art

"Destruction contains more information than survival." — Jack Butcher, Gas Wars (2025)

"The missing planes told the real story." — Abraham Wald's insight, translated into digital art

Version 1.0 — September 2025

This whitepaper describes an experimental artwork exploring survivorship bias through generative combat simulations. Nothing herein constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Participation is entirely at your own risk. Value and meaning are subjective. This artwork may or may not be notable.